Why is it so hard to draft a franchise quarterback?
Quarterback is the most difficult position for scouts to evaluate come Draft season. First round players like E.J. Manuel end up as busts, while guys drafted as career backups can sometimes emerge as franchise passers, like Tom Brady or Dak Prescott. So why do so many teams get it wrong?
A lot has to be considered when drafting a quarterback. Mechanics, accuracy, arm strength, and size are all important physical characteristics, while decision-making, reading the field correctly and quickly, and pocket awareness are all necessary mental attributes. But work ethic, leadership, and competitiveness are also intangibles that all of the great quarterbacks possess. All six of these quarterbacks were evaluated the same way. So why did three franchise quarterbacks fall to the fourth round or lower while three struggling players went in the first round? To find out, I’ve delved into the scouting reports for Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, E.J. Manuel, Tom Brady and Blake Bortles.
After reading several scouting reports, it’s clear that the physical attributes are the biggest area for scouts. Goff, Bortles, Prescott and Manuel all meet the “ideal” build for a quarterback, while there were concerns about Cousins’ arm strength. But Tom Brady had the most physical concerns. Scouts weren’t sure that he could stand up to punishment, and he also struggled to push the ball deep downfield at Michigan.
In terms of the necessary mental attributes, all except Bortles and Manuel graded highly, which could be due to the type of system that each player ran in college. Brady and Cousins both ran pro-style offenses at Michigan and Michigan State respectively, while Bortles and Manuel both played in simplified schemes that didn’t require them to read the field extensively. Despite playing in spread-style systems that are prevalent in college football, Prescott and Goff both demonstrated the ability to read the field, process information quickly and work through their progressions. Bortles and Manuel don’t have the same mental traits or football awareness as the other four.
But perhaps the most important attributes for quarterbacks are the intangibles. A franchise quarterback needs to be a leader; not just for the offense but for the team as a whole. He needs to be competitive and capable of leading a team to comeback wins and needs to play his best in big games. Brady, Cousins, and Prescott all had extremely good intangibles. However, while Goff carried the California Bears on his back and Manuel’s leadership saw his team-mates play harder, Bortles played poorly against weaker opponents in college.
Numbers and statistics can also skew a scout’s view of a prospect. Manuel and Bortles had the highest quarterback ratings and completion percentages of the six, yet both ranked in the bottom half for passing yards. Brady had the fewest yards, but he split time at quarterback in Ann Arbor. Goff threw for the most yards by far, but is the only player of the six to finish college with a losing record (although that isn’t necessarily his fault).
Experience is also a key attribute for a prospect to have. Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells famously demanded that a quarterback should be at least a three year starter, with 30 starts and win 23 games. Apart from Brady and Bortles, all of these quarterbacks started at least 30 games. However, Bortles and Goff declared for the Draft after their junior seasons, leaving at least one year of development on the table. Prescott had the most starts with 49, followed by Cousins with 45. Prescott had the best record, while Goff had the worst. All won 23 games except Brady, Goff, and Bortles.
It seems that scouts focus too much on the physical attributes for quarterbacks, whereas the intangibles and mental attributes often get overlooked. Both Brady and Prescott; the two most successful quarterbacks of the group, were also the lowest drafted despite arguably having the best intangibles. The type of system a quarterback comes from also doesn’t actually matter, as long as they show the necessary mental and intangible attributes.
So what about the prospects in this year’s Draft? Let’s take the top three quarterbacks; Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer, Clemson’s DeShaun Watson, and UNC’s Mitch Trubisky. The 2017 class is not a great one, and all three quarterbacks are considered developmental prospects rather than ready-made franchises passers.
Physically, Kizer seems to be the most prototypical prospect, although Watson and Trubisky have enough physical traits. Kizer has the most arm strength, but Watson and Trubisky have enough, and all three players can make all the necessary throws. In terms of mental attributes, Trubisky has the edge. He is a consistent and accurate passer who can work through progressions and has good field vision and pocket presence. Kizer has similar traits, but is less consistent, whereas Watson struggles with accuracy and was not asked to make reads at Clemson.
However, Trubisky only started for one year before declaring for the Draft, while Kizer has played in just 23 games. Watson is more experienced and is also a National Champion and has the best record by far. Watson also has the best intangibles of the three, with impressive work ethic and leadership skills. Kizer is also a good leader and is passionate about football, while Trubisky also pushed his team to upset wins. Choosing between the three is difficult, but Kizer is perhaps the most balanced prospect. He shows the necessary mental attributes and intangibles, whilst also boasting tremendous physical skills with a decent amount of experience under his belt.
So when drafting quarterbacks in future, teams should be looking for natural leaders and true competitors who possess exceptional intelligence and awareness, rather than inconsistent yet physically gifted “prototypical” prospects. As always, drafting the right quarterback will continue to make or break franchises across the league…
