What can we expect from the Russian Grand Prix?
Three races into the season, it’s clear that we have a real battle on our hands between Ferrari and Mercedes. Sebastian Vettel currently has the advantage over Lewis Hamilton, but the lead of the Championship will likely swing back and forth throughout the season in a wire-to-wire rollercoaster. So what can we expect from the Russian Grand Prix?
Who will Sochi favour?
At first glance, the Sochi Autodrom looks like a perfect track for Mercedes; lots of long straights with several low speed corners and high acceleration zones, with over 60% of the lap spent on full throttle. In other words, a standard power track. And, sure enough, Mercedes have dominated the Russian Grand Prix since its inception in 2014. But the Silver Arrows may not have it so easy this season. Ferrari will be close in the race even if Mercedes have a performance advantage in qualifying. The low downforce levels in Sochi means that the race could be decided in a battle of the power units.
Rubber could decide the race
Tyres played a huge role last time out in Bahrain. Ferrari seem comfortable on any of Pirelli’s tyre compounds, while Mercedes struggled to switch on the super softs at Sakhir, especially pole man Valtteri Bottas. The Russian Grand Prix will see the first appearance this season of the ultra soft compound, along with the super softs and softs. This should favour Ferrari, who seem to look after the softer tyres better than Mercedes. The race will likely be a one stop, so if Mercedes are forced to use the soft tyre (the hardest available compound this weekend), they may be too slow to compete with Ferrari in the race. Even though Sochi isn’t known for high tyre wear, part of Mercedes’ issues are that they struggle to switch on the softer compounds, whereas Ferrari don’t.
Bottas needs to beat Hamilton
Although Valtteri Bottas stunned Hamilton in qualifying in Bahrain to take his first career pole, he fell off during the race; struggling for pace and eventually being asked to let Hamilton through. While qualifying ahead of Hamilton in a nip-and-tuck Saturday shoot-out will have given him a confidence boost, Bottas must now deliver a result on race day. If Vettel and Ferrari continue to eke out an advantage in the championship, Bottas may quickly be relegated to the clear number two as Hamilton’s rear-gunner. Although Mercedes maintain that both drivers are free to race, that sentiment may not last much longer unless Bottas can take the fight to the leading contenders.
Struggles in-store for Red Bull?
Despite Red Bull seemingly narrowing the gap to Ferrari and Mercedes at each event so far, the gulf could widen again in Sochi. Renault’s engine will struggle to give Red Bull the power to compete on a power track. However, like Ferrari, Red Bull seem able to get the softer tyre compounds to work better than Mercedes, so they could be outside contenders for third place. But at a track where overtaking opportunities are relatively low and qualifying is paramount, don’t expect Verstappen or Ricciardo to challenger for the victory.
Midfield separation in Sochi
In terms of the midfield battle, Williams and Force India should be the strongest of the chasing pack in Sochi. Their Mercedes power units should give them the edge over their rivals, although of the two, Russia’s cooler conditions should favour Force India. Expect Toro Rosso and Haas to be in the mix though, as their Ferrari engines should keep them in touch. Renault stand to lose the most ground, as they will be at a severe power disadvantage at a track where success comes mainly from the engine and not the aero package.
More McLaren misery
McLaren are set to struggle again in Sochi, as the nature of the track will expose their glaring power disadvantage even more. It will take some monumental magic from Fernando Alonso to keep McLaren in the mix, assuming that both cars can actually make it to the chequered flag.
