Seven Step Drop: Draft Special
Welcome to another edition of Seven Step Drop; a weekly blog reporting, analysing, and discussing news and views from around the NFL! Published every Wednesday right through the season until Super Bowl LII next year, Seven Step Drop brings you insights and opinions from Sports Under Centre. With the Draft just one day away, this week’s drop will be a Draft special! So let’s delve into this week’s drops!
1 — Smokescreen season
As the Draft approaches, anticipation for who goes where and what trades we could see ramps up. Perhaps the most interesting team to watch is the San Francisco 49ers. They hold the 2nd overall pick and have several options. Some of the recent rumours from Ian Rappoport are that the 49ers are “strongly considering” a quarterback, who Fox’s Peter Schrager believes could be Mitch Trubisky. But is this all just a smokescreen to make a team that wants Trubisky trade up to #2? I think so. General manager John Lynch declared last week that he is “open for business” regarding trades, and the 49ers need as many picks as possible to rebuild a barren roster. I think that head coach Kyle Shanahan wants to pursue Kirk Cousins next year, so the 49ers should use this year’s Draft to build a talented roster ready for Cousins to step in in 2018. And, if they fail to land Cousins, next year’s quarterback class looks incredibly promising…
2 — Trade talk tail-off
Over the past few weeks we’ve heard that star players like Malcolm Butler and Richard Sherman could be traded. Both now seem unlikely. The Saints are reportedly unwilling to part with their high picks despite advanced negotiations with Butler, while Seahawks general manager John Schneider said this week that the team has “moved past” trade talks involving Sherman. Another player who probably won’t be traded is Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, as New England seems to genuinely believe that he is Tom Brady’s eventual successor. Bill Belichick is reportedly considering franchising Garoppolo once his contract runs out this season. This also seems to close the door on New England recouping a first or second round pick, leaving the Patriots out of the mix until the third round in a talent-rich Draft.
3 — Running back dominoes fall
Pending a physical today, Marshawn Lynch will finally be an Oakland Raider. On Tuesday the Raiders and Seahawks agreed to swap late-round picks next year as Beast Mode joins his home-town team. Oakland will pay Lynch’s $3 million base salary on a one year deal, with incentives that could make the contract balloon to $8.5 million. The Raiders have two excellent change-of-pace backs in Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington, and adding Lynch means they boast possibly the best backfield in the AFC West.
Mickey Loomis continues to baffle me. I wasn’t sure why he brought in Ted Ginn to replace Brandin Cooks when the Saints have such dire needs on defense. And now he signs Adrian Peterson to a two year, $7 million deal with $3.5 million guaranteed (the second season is a team option), despite the presence of incumbent power back Mark Ingram. Peterson is purely a two-down player who cannot help in the passing game and struggles in pass protection, unlike Ingram. So why did Loomis potentially hand out a combined $18 million over the next three years for Ginn and Peterson when the Saints could’ve spent that money on better defensive upgrades than A.J. Klein?
4 — Cowboys need “war daddies”
Dallas has a loaded offense spearheaded by the young tandem of quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott, but their defense is sorely lacking after losing multiple starters to free agency. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said back in February that Dallas will be looking for “war daddies” to upgrade coordinator Rod Marinelli’s defense. With a lack of cap space in free agency, those kind of players will have to come in the Draft, and Dallas should use at least their first three picks on defense. The Cowboys desperately need pass rushers, so someone like UCLA’s Takkarist McKinley, Michigan’s Taco Charlton, or Missouri’s Charles Harris could all be available when Dallas picks at 28th overall. In the second round, a cornerback like Washington’s Kevin King, a linebacker like Houston’s Tyus Bowser, or a safety like Washington’s Budda Baker would be a steal, and adding a defensive tackle or another cornerback in the third round would complete a good draft for Dallas.
5 — Titans poised to control Draft
Sometimes, the team picking first overall doesn’t actually control the Draft. This year, Tennessee are primed to bend the board to their whims. Armed with the 5th and 18th overall picks along with two third rounders, the Titans are positioned as the team to call if someone wants to trade up for a quarterback or defensive difference-maker. Tennessee doesn’t hold a second round pick right now, but would likely be able to extract one from a trade partner and still end up with two first round picks. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cleveland or Houston came calling for the 5th pick, as both will likely want to land their quarterback of choice. While they might miss out on someone like Jamal Adams, Tennessee will still be able to find a number one receiver and a defensive difference-maker even if they trade down.
6 — What do the Browns do?
Ask almost any draft analyst and they will say that Myles Garrett is the best player in the Draft and is worthy of the first overall pick. However, the Browns appear to be split, with rumours that they could take quarterback Mitch Trubisky first overall to avoid him being unavailable at 12. The 49ers apparently have real interest in Trubisky, but Tony Grossi of ESPN Cleveland thinks that could be a ploy to make Garrett fall to them. However, my gut feeling tells me that Garrett isn’t worth the hype. And I’m not alone in my controversial reservations. Hall of Famer Warren Sapp also doesn’t believe that Garrett is a slam-dunk first overall pick. I’m not saying that Garrett will be a bust, he’ll definitely be a good player. But is he so much better than someone like Solomon Thomas?
So what should Cleveland do? Gross believes that the Browns’ Draft day decisions will depend on who they want more; Garrett or Trubisky. It’s unlikely that they could get both unless they trade for the 2nd overall pick as well. So do you take Trubisky and settle for Thomas? Or do you pass on a potential franchise saviour (for the second year in a row), take Garrett, and end up with DeShaun Watson or DeShone Kizer? For me, the Browns shouldn’t draft a quarterback at all in the top three rounds, because A) Trubisky isn’t even my top quarterback (I think Kizer is the best) and B) as has been well-documented here on Sports Under Centre, I think the Browns should stick with Cody Kessler. They need a lot more than just a quarterback, even though they seem locked into taking one. With that in mind, Cleveland should decide whether they want Garrett or Thomas first overall.
7 — USC reunion in Cleveland?
As I’ve said constantly, I think Cody Kessler can be the answer for the Browns long-term. Why draft another quarterback high when you invested a 3rd rounder in Kessler last year, despite many believing him to be a Day Three pick? To succeed, Kessler needs a solid roster around him. The Browns have built a solid offensive line, but need upgrades at the skill positions. Someone like Alabama tight end O.J. Howard shouldn’t be overlooked by Cleveland in the first round, but what about reuniting Kessler with his former team-mate at USC; receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster? Schuster should fall to the second round, so Cleveland could easily grab him with the 33rd pick. Schuster would give Kessler another strong, consistent possession receiver across the middle and would also give him a security blanket that he trusts. Kessler can be the saviour for the Browns, as long as they give him a good supporting cast.
