Quick Picks: Wild Card Weekend
After a roller-coaster regular season, 20 teams have played their final games of the year. But for the 12 playoff teams, everything resets. Here are our Quick Picks for Wild Card Weekend.
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs
After surviving a mid-season slump, Kansas City restarted their offense back and secured the AFC West. Despite slogging through an inconsistent season, a 15–10 win over rivals Jacksonville gave Tennessee their first playoff berth since 2008. If Marcus Mariota and Derrick Henry step up, the Titans could give Kansas City real problems. The Chiefs have struggled defensively for much of the season, allowing 118.1 rushing yards per game; 25th in the league.
Tennessee’s defense also needs to step up and limit the explosive plays that define Andy Reid’s offense. The Titans boast the league’s 4th best run defense, which should slow down Kareem Hunt. But in their two worst losses down the stretch, Mike Mularkey was out-coached by first-year head coaches Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. He must now faced the more experienced Reid, which could allow the Chiefs to escape a close game.
Atlanta Falcons @ Los Angeles Rams
The Falcons played their best game of the season last week, beating Carolina to secure a playoff spot. However, they have been inconsistent for much of the year and had home-field advantage last week. Now they face a Rams team that has looked complete in recent weeks. Atlanta must find a way to stop Todd Gurley, who led the league in both yards from scrimmage and total touchdowns. The Falcons have a young, fast defense that has played well down the stretch and could match up well with Gurley and LA’s receivers, limiting options for Jared Goff.
If Dan Quinn’s unit is playing at their best, the Rams could struggle to establish an early lead. So the deciding factor could be Wade Phillips’ defense, which has looked good down the stretch. Aaron Donald needs to stifle Atlanta’s running game to prevent the Falcons from controlling the clock. Phillips also needs to shut down Julio Jones, who is primed for a big game, if Los Angeles are to win their first playoff game since 1989.
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Bills snapped their 17 year playoff drought thanks to a late Bengals win over Baltimore, and continue to be one of this year’s unlikely positive stories under first-year head coach Sean McDermott. But with LeSean McCoy nursing an ankle injury sustained last week, Buffalo’s chances for a miracle win against Jacksonville’s loaded defense are slim.
Tyrod Taylor will struggle to put up points against the Jaguars, so McDermott’s defense needs to shut down Leonard Fournette and dare the inconsistent Blake Bortles to throw into a good Bills secondary. But Bortles only needs to avoid turnovers and let the defense and running game control the clock for Jacksonville to advance. As uplifting as the Bills have been this season, they don’t have enough to record their first post-season win since 1995.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Having battled for the NFC South for much of the year, the Panthers and Saints are both coming off tough Week 17 losses despite making the playoffs. Carolina’s defense has declined dramatically down the stretch. After allowing just 16.3 points per game before their Week 11 bye, Carolina has given up 24.5 points per game over their final six games.
The Saints swept the Panthers during the regular season, despite Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Marshon Lattimore absent for both contests. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans’ Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate, dominated the Panthers and should be a huge factor. But the runner who could make the most difference is Cam Newton.
Newton averaged only 4.5 rushing attempts against the Saints. But over Carolina’s last four games, he averaged 12.5 attempts, and the Panthers went 3–1 down the stretch while averaging 23.5 points per game. The Saints must keep Cam in the pocket and force him to throw, giving Lattimore and Co. the chance to make plays. If New Orleans can generate some turnovers and control the clock with Kamara and Mark Ingram, they beat Carolina for the third time this season.
