Divisional Round Quick Picks
Four teams; the Chiefs, Rams, Bills and Panthers, have joined the list of teams out of contention for the Super Bowl. Eight squads still remain as we head into the Divisional Round, where the championship finalists for both conferences will be decided. Here are our Quick Picks for the Divisional Round;
Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles
After Carson Wentz’s injury, the Eagles struggled to close out the season with Nick Foles. Even though they are the NFC’s top seed, Philadelphia aren’t the juggernaut they were for much of the regular season. Theoretically, the Eagles have a complete enough roster to survive and succeed without Wentz. Trouble is, we didn’t really see that over the their last three games as the defense and running game couldn’t shoulder the load. And with Atlanta’s defense playing like a top five unit down the stretch, Foles could be the weak point that grounds the Eagles.
To win, Philadelphia must use its running game and defense to control the clock, keeping Matt Ryan’s offense off the field and exhausting Dan Quinn’s fast, young defense. But Atlanta will be running a similar strategy after their ball control game-plan worked perfectly against the Rams last week. The Falcons held the ball for 37:35 in a 26–13 win. But with a better quarterback, Atlanta should be able to make the strategy work again. Ryan is better positioned to take advantage of weak points in Philadelphia’s secondary, giving the Falcons a chance to defend their NFC crown.
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots
This may not be the white-wash that pundits are envisioning, but it depends on which Titans team shows up. The team down 21–3 at half-time to the Chiefs? Or the squad that fought back for a 22–21 win? Tennessee needs Marcus Mariota and Derrick Henry to play keep-away from Tom Brady. The Titans dominated time of possession against Kansas City thanks to some long sustained drives in the second half.
But this is the Patriots, so Bill Belichick will likely find a way to exploit Tennessee’s weaknesses. The Titans have a solid defense, especially against the run. But coordinator Dick LeBeau primarily runs a zone scheme that Brady has beaten countless times throughout his career. Look for New England to stretch the Titans horizontally with their running backs and receivers, finding gaps in the zone. The biggest factor will be that Tennessee doesn’t really have a defender or double team that can contain Rob Gronkowski. With Gronk poised for a big game, Brady and Belichick should advance to a seventh consecutive AFC Championship game berth.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Will Antonio Brown be 100%? That’s the key question for a Steelers team that will need all the weapons they can muster in a rematch with the league’s best defense. In Week Five, the Jaguars intercepted Ben Roethlisberger five times and shut down Le’Veon Bell in a 30–9 blowout win in Pittsburgh. That defense is also coming off a strong performance against Buffalo. But JuJu Smith-Schuster had not yet emerged as a weapon, and Roethlisberger has been playing well down the stretch.
Jacksonville’s chances will come down to which Blake Bortles shows up. Bortles struggled to generate offense against the Bills, as did Leonard Fournette. Both will need to step up against a good Steelers defense. Although Ryan Shazier’s absence may make things easier, especially for Fournette, he has also given Pittsburgh a figure to rally around. Since Shazier’s injury, the Steelers are 4–1 and have been playing well. Can Jacksonville slow them down? Or are Pittsburgh destined to secure a rematch with New England for the AFC title?
New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings
These teams looked completely different when they last met in Week One. Sam Bradford has been replaced by Case Keenum, the Saints have emerged as a dynamic run-first team, and their defense has blossomed into a solid unit. Both teams look like complete contenders, and both favour the indoor conditions of US Bank Stadium. New Orleans’ backfield duo of Mark Ingram and rookie Alvin Kamara surpassed 3000 scrimmage yards between them and should match up well against Minnesota. But the running game struggled against the Panthers and hasn’t been on top form for a couple of weeks.
Meanwhile, the Vikings have been winning consistently down the stretch. But, aside from Carolina, Keenum hasn’t played against an in-form defense. With rookies Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Williams playing well alongside veteran pass rusher Cam Jordan, Keenum could have trouble moving the ball. But with Michael Thomas and Ted Ginn alongside Kamara and Ingram, Brees has the weapons to find a weakness in Mike Zimmer’s defense, and is coming off one of his best performances. In a close game, Brees could lead New Orleans to their first NFC Championship game berth since their 2009 Super Bowl season.
