Ceilings and Floors: AFC East
We’ve weathered free agency, dealt with the Draft, and scrutinised the schedule. Now we can look ahead to real football as we build up to the start of the season. So we looked at each team’s schedule and weighed up their offseason moves to predict their best and worst records to find their potential ceilings and floors. Here’s the AFC East:
Buffalo Bills
Ceiling: 8–8
Floor: 6–10
2016: 7–9
Buffalo has a new staff in head coach Sean McDermott and recently-hired general manager Brandon Beane. Can they bring stability to the perennially dysfunctional Bills? Tyrod Taylor returns at quarterback, and new offensive coordinator Rick Dennison’s West Coast, zone-run system could drag a career year out of the former Raven despite a relative lack of weapons. Buffalo also still has LeSean McCoy, but lack depth behind him. Sammy Watkins also needs a breakout year after the Bills didn’t exercise his fifth year option. Meanwhile, the defense lost key pieces like Stephon Gilmore but managed to find a few replacements in the Draft. Can McDermott turn the Bills around?
Miami Dolphins
Ceiling: 10–6
Floor: 8–8
2016: 10–6
The Dolphins made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 under new head coach Adam Gase last year. Ryan Tannehill and a slightly upgraded offense should continue to improve in Gase’s second season. Running back Jay Ajayi should be more of a factor on passing downs, while Julius Thomas reunites with Gase to give Tannehill the best tight end he’s had in Miami, assuming Thomas can stay healthy. The defense has improved, but saw coordinator Vance Joseph take Denver’s vacant head coaching job. Can Matt Burke step up and take over? Miami will face tough competition for another wild card spot this season.
New England Patriots
Ceiling: 16–0
Floor: 13–3
2016: 14–2
On paper, this could be the most talented Patriots team since the 2007 squad that had an undefeated regular season, and New England could flirt with 16–0 again this season. The Patriots were uncharacteristically aggressive this offseason, signing corner Stephon Gilmore to a top dollar contract and trading for weapons like Brandin Cooks and Dwayne Allen. All while keeping hold of both Malcolm Butler and Jimmy Garoppolo, who both could’ve been traded. These Patriots are built to win even if something happens to Brady, and even if they don’t go undefeated, this team should at least reach a seventh consecutive AFC Championship game; which would be their 13th appearance in the Brady-Belichick era.
New York Jets
Ceiling: 5–11
Floor: 2–14
2016: 5–11
After a disappointing season with an ageing roster last year, the Jets held a fire sale this offseason; gutting the roster and trying to avoid the obvious ‘rebuilding’ moniker. They brought in Josh McCown to compete with Bryce Petty and former second-round pick Christian Hackenburg at quarterback, but will likely have their eyes on next year’s quarterback class. The defensive line is still a strength, but despite the new safety tandem of Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye anchoring the secondary, this is arguably the worst roster in the league. Will head coach Todd Bowles and general manager Mike Maccagnan still be employed this time next year?
